Liquidity & Technicals
Portfolio Implementation Verdict
ADANIENT trades ₹340M per day on a 20-day average — thin relative to its ₹3.15 lakh crore market cap, constrained by a 74.67% promoter lock-up that leaves under 25% effective free float. The technical stance is neutral: price just reclaimed the 200-day SMA on a sharp +32.5% one-month rally, but the death cross (50d under 200d) remains active and RSI is overbought at 76.
5-Day Capacity 20% ADV (₹ Cr)
Max Position (% MCap, 5d)
Fund AUM for 5% Pos (₹ Cr)
ADV 20d (% MCap)
Technical Score (+3 to -3)
Liquidity is the binding constraint. ADV is ₹34 crore/day — adequate for retail and small institutional positions, but a fund targeting a 5% weight is limited to under ₹800 crore AUM at 20% daily participation over five days. Promoter holding of 74.67% compresses the tradable float. Elevated median daily range of 2.9% signals meaningful execution friction for larger orders.
Price Snapshot
Current Price (₹)
YTD Return
1Y Return
52-Week Position (%)
Beta
Full-History Price with 50/200 SMA
Price is above the 200-day SMA (₹2,411 vs ₹2,294). The current regime is a sharp recovery rally within a broader downtrend — price traded below the 200d from November 2024 through late April 2026, and has only just reclaimed it. The 50d SMA (₹2,082) remains well below the 200d, meaning the December 2025 death cross is still structurally active.
Most recent cross: Death cross on 2025-12-16 (50d crossed below 200d). The death cross remains active — SMA50 at ₹2,082 is still 9.2% below SMA200 at ₹2,294.
Relative Strength vs Benchmark
Benchmark data (INDA) was not available in the staging files. The chart shows ADANIENT's absolute performance rebased to 100 from March 2023. Over this 3-year window, the stock is up ~40% from its post-Hindenburg recovery base but remains 42% below its January 2023 all-time high of ₹4,190.
Momentum — RSI and MACD
RSI has surged from 32 (late March, near oversold) to 76 (current, overbought) in under a month — the sharpest momentum swing in 18 months. MACD histogram has flipped decisively positive with the largest bullish bars since the September 2025 rally. Near-term momentum is strongly bullish but the overbought RSI reading means pullbacks are probable within 1-3 weeks.
Volume, Volatility, and Sponsorship
The two largest volume spikes in the dataset are associated with sharp sell-offs (Jun 2024: -19.4%, Nov 2024: -22.6%), consistent with forced selling or institutional exit events. The March 2025 spike (+4.6%, 33.5x average) was a reversal/recovery day. Volume has surged in March-April 2026 as the current rally drew participation.
Current 30-day realized volatility is 42.8%, sitting between the 50th percentile (39.7%) and 80th percentile (55.0%) of its 10-year history — elevated but within the normal regime. The Hindenburg episode of early 2023 produced a record spike to 185%, dwarfing all other readings. The November 2024 sell-off generated an 80% vol reading. This stock has tail-risk episodes that push volatility to extremes. The market is demanding a wider risk premium but has not entered a stressed regime.
Institutional Liquidity
Share-count and market-cap fields are missing from the pricing data source. Liquidity calculations below use market cap from filings (₹3,14,942 crore). Sizing should be treated as indicative. Promoter holding of 74.67% means effective free float is under 25%.
A. ADV and Turnover
ADV 20d (Shares)
ADV 20d (₹ M)
ADV 60d (Shares)
ADV 20d (% MCap)
Annual Turnover (%)
B. Fund-Capacity Table
C. Liquidation Runway
D. Execution Friction
Median daily range over 60 days: 2.86% — above the 2% threshold, indicating elevated impact cost for block-level orders. Combined with the thin ADV, this means any meaningful institutional position will move the stock.
At 20% ADV participation, the largest position that clears in five trading days is approximately ₹388 crore (0.012% of market cap). At the more conservative 10% participation rate, that falls to ₹194 crore. These are small numbers for a company with a ₹3.15 lakh crore total market cap — the tight promoter lock-up is the root cause. A fund with under ₹800 crore AUM could take a 5% position over five days at 20% ADV; larger funds would need to build slowly over multiple weeks or accept significant market impact.
Technical Scorecard and Stance
Total: +1 (Neutral)
Stance: Neutral on the 3-to-6 month horizon. The +32.5% one-month rally is the strongest short-term move since September 2025 and has pushed price back above the 200-day SMA — a necessary but not sufficient condition for a trend reversal. The death cross remains structurally active with SMA50 at ₹2,082, still 9% below SMA200 at ₹2,294. RSI is overbought at 76, making a near-term pullback probable. The stock is 42% below its all-time high and the one-year return is flat, so while the tape is improving it has not confirmed a new uptrend. A sustained break above ₹2,695 (52-week high) would confirm bullish reversal and shift the view to bullish. A failure to hold ₹2,080 (50-day SMA / March support) would confirm the downtrend and shift the view to bearish. Liquidity is the constraint — a fund targeting more than a 5% position would need to build over multiple weeks at 20% ADV, and even small institutional positions (0.5% of market cap) take over 200 days to exit. The correct posture for size-constrained funds is watchlist with patient accumulation on pullbacks toward the 50-day SMA.